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	<title>Comments on: Customer Journey Cookie Attribution &#8211; Statistically Flawed?</title>
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	<link>http://www.onelittleduck.co.uk/affiliate-marketing/customer-journey-cookie-attribution-statistically-flawed-1275.htm</link>
	<description>Online blog of Jason Dale, co-director of Loquax. My views on affiliate marketing, running a website and anything else that seems appropriate!</description>
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		<title>By: Clarke</title>
		<link>http://www.onelittleduck.co.uk/affiliate-marketing/customer-journey-cookie-attribution-statistically-flawed-1275.htm/comment-page-1/#comment-52308</link>
		<dc:creator>Clarke</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:16:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.onelittleduck.co.uk/?p=1275#comment-52308</guid>
		<description>@Jamie H, IP and User-Agent matching is possible but as the hours pass it becomes less reliable and you have to set a reasonable limit on what is considered acceptable. Best case just now is around 6 hours after a click as long as checks are made into instances of more then 2 sales in that time, from a specific IP and User-Agent match.

You can see from the debate over at http://blog.paidonresults.com/tracking-methods-report.html that even that has its issues if correct checks are not in place. With regards to how many cookies are deleted by Cash-back users etc, I would need to do some checking into data we hold and can’t say at this point how much information I would be able to find out, or indeed how accurate that could be without spending some time researching it.

But it is all very interesting pieces of the puzzle that need to be trashed out and debated, but I doubt one model fits all is possible but you never know, I am keeping an open mind on it. Amazon being the market leader, anyone know what they are saying on the subject?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Jamie H, IP and User-Agent matching is possible but as the hours pass it becomes less reliable and you have to set a reasonable limit on what is considered acceptable. Best case just now is around 6 hours after a click as long as checks are made into instances of more then 2 sales in that time, from a specific IP and User-Agent match.</p>
<p>You can see from the debate over at <a href="http://blog.paidonresults.com/tracking-methods-report.html" rel="nofollow">http://blog.paidonresults.com/tracking-methods-report.html</a> that even that has its issues if correct checks are not in place. With regards to how many cookies are deleted by Cash-back users etc, I would need to do some checking into data we hold and can’t say at this point how much information I would be able to find out, or indeed how accurate that could be without spending some time researching it.</p>
<p>But it is all very interesting pieces of the puzzle that need to be trashed out and debated, but I doubt one model fits all is possible but you never know, I am keeping an open mind on it. Amazon being the market leader, anyone know what they are saying on the subject?</p>
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		<title>By: Jamie H</title>
		<link>http://www.onelittleduck.co.uk/affiliate-marketing/customer-journey-cookie-attribution-statistically-flawed-1275.htm/comment-page-1/#comment-52307</link>
		<dc:creator>Jamie H</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Oct 2009 10:23:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.onelittleduck.co.uk/?p=1275#comment-52307</guid>
		<description>Hi All, 

Great post Jason,

I think cookie attribution is and will be the way forward. However i have to agree with Matt, the only way it will happen properly is if the entire online journey is included seo, ppc, cpm, and cpa/affiliate which then would include a subset of channels voucher, cashback, content, comparison etc. Merchants are now more informed than they have ever been and want to understand the consumer journey and the TRUE value of each channel. This will inevitably shake a lot of cages as it is well known that, at present allocation is moved around to prove something is working well we all know it is clearly not (pi banners).

I think it can be used well and if done properly prove the value of good quality affiliates. If its done badly then it runs the risk of destroying the industry. We are not the cheapest route to market anymore and have to ensure merchants understand the true value affiliates/cpa can provide.

&quot;The first rule of cashback club is to delete your cookies and tracking information off your computer (prior to click) so you know you will get the sale. This makes it really hard for networks and merchants to track this activity in line with other channels.&quot; From James on Geoffblog

I guess the question is do we move from cookie and look at other ways of tracking, you could do it by IP and User-Agent matching to make a best guess scenario but it is unlikely any networks or merchants have done this. Merchants would be able to see the real value as you wouldn&#039;t need to delete cookies for cashback sites.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi All, </p>
<p>Great post Jason,</p>
<p>I think cookie attribution is and will be the way forward. However i have to agree with Matt, the only way it will happen properly is if the entire online journey is included seo, ppc, cpm, and cpa/affiliate which then would include a subset of channels voucher, cashback, content, comparison etc. Merchants are now more informed than they have ever been and want to understand the consumer journey and the TRUE value of each channel. This will inevitably shake a lot of cages as it is well known that, at present allocation is moved around to prove something is working well we all know it is clearly not (pi banners).</p>
<p>I think it can be used well and if done properly prove the value of good quality affiliates. If its done badly then it runs the risk of destroying the industry. We are not the cheapest route to market anymore and have to ensure merchants understand the true value affiliates/cpa can provide.</p>
<p>&#8220;The first rule of cashback club is to delete your cookies and tracking information off your computer (prior to click) so you know you will get the sale. This makes it really hard for networks and merchants to track this activity in line with other channels.&#8221; From James on Geoffblog</p>
<p>I guess the question is do we move from cookie and look at other ways of tracking, you could do it by IP and User-Agent matching to make a best guess scenario but it is unlikely any networks or merchants have done this. Merchants would be able to see the real value as you wouldn&#8217;t need to delete cookies for cashback sites.</p>
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		<title>By: Kevin Edwards</title>
		<link>http://www.onelittleduck.co.uk/affiliate-marketing/customer-journey-cookie-attribution-statistically-flawed-1275.htm/comment-page-1/#comment-52305</link>
		<dc:creator>Kevin Edwards</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Oct 2009 21:33:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.onelittleduck.co.uk/?p=1275#comment-52305</guid>
		<description>@Clarke - I worked at dgm over three years ago, quite what this comment about ex-dgm employees has on this discussion is baffling especially when I worked so hard at the time to raise the very obvious problems internally.

I&#039;m not dimissing views here - in fact I positively encourage debate as we need to address the subject Jason originally raised collectively as an industry

Presumably you are concerned about affiliates across the board losing out as more merchants look to de-duplicate all their online activity whilst maintaining last click still reflects the value of their various channels.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Clarke &#8211; I worked at dgm over three years ago, quite what this comment about ex-dgm employees has on this discussion is baffling especially when I worked so hard at the time to raise the very obvious problems internally.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not dimissing views here &#8211; in fact I positively encourage debate as we need to address the subject Jason originally raised collectively as an industry</p>
<p>Presumably you are concerned about affiliates across the board losing out as more merchants look to de-duplicate all their online activity whilst maintaining last click still reflects the value of their various channels.</p>
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		<title>By: Clarke</title>
		<link>http://www.onelittleduck.co.uk/affiliate-marketing/customer-journey-cookie-attribution-statistically-flawed-1275.htm/comment-page-1/#comment-52303</link>
		<dc:creator>Clarke</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Oct 2009 18:55:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.onelittleduck.co.uk/?p=1275#comment-52303</guid>
		<description>@ Jason - Confused at what Jason is who? Get http://en.gravatar.com/ guys, it brands your comments so you know who is speaking quicker ;-)

There is a lot of data from a Networks point of view but it’s not the full picture, also you need to use technology other than plain old cookies, Google has got great stuff but even that doesn’t show the Merchant the full picture.

Yes most of us can see who clicked around, some of us can see who deleted cookies and then went on to do a sale, some of us can even see who came from what places with no-cookies and then activate them for buying from a site then turn them off.

The question is, are we ready to really know how many sales change last minute for different reasons? Will certain big factions really around to try and stop people getting business if they publish facts (blackmail in this industry is saying you won’t work with someone and then publishing it), loads of politics in working Network and Agency side, less so Merchant and even less as an Affiliate. I have no boss so I can say what I like, most are not that lucky.

It’s no small task pulling data together and checking it and making sure it’s based on facts, of course once you publish it some people won’t believe it anyway but you do need to remember everyone’s data is going to be different, think the DC Storm guys proved they had different data from others but didn’t make the others any less true or good to know.

A clever guy told me at the Expo, you can make data say anything you want; you just need to know what you want it to say and work from there. Bah, wish I was that clever :-)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@ Jason &#8211; Confused at what Jason is who? Get <a href="http://en.gravatar.com/" rel="nofollow">http://en.gravatar.com/</a> guys, it brands your comments so you know who is speaking quicker <img src='http://www.onelittleduck.co.uk/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif' alt=';-)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
<p>There is a lot of data from a Networks point of view but it’s not the full picture, also you need to use technology other than plain old cookies, Google has got great stuff but even that doesn’t show the Merchant the full picture.</p>
<p>Yes most of us can see who clicked around, some of us can see who deleted cookies and then went on to do a sale, some of us can even see who came from what places with no-cookies and then activate them for buying from a site then turn them off.</p>
<p>The question is, are we ready to really know how many sales change last minute for different reasons? Will certain big factions really around to try and stop people getting business if they publish facts (blackmail in this industry is saying you won’t work with someone and then publishing it), loads of politics in working Network and Agency side, less so Merchant and even less as an Affiliate. I have no boss so I can say what I like, most are not that lucky.</p>
<p>It’s no small task pulling data together and checking it and making sure it’s based on facts, of course once you publish it some people won’t believe it anyway but you do need to remember everyone’s data is going to be different, think the DC Storm guys proved they had different data from others but didn’t make the others any less true or good to know.</p>
<p>A clever guy told me at the Expo, you can make data say anything you want; you just need to know what you want it to say and work from there. Bah, wish I was that clever <img src='http://www.onelittleduck.co.uk/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':-)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
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		<title>By: Clarke</title>
		<link>http://www.onelittleduck.co.uk/affiliate-marketing/customer-journey-cookie-attribution-statistically-flawed-1275.htm/comment-page-1/#comment-52302</link>
		<dc:creator>Clarke</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Oct 2009 18:40:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.onelittleduck.co.uk/?p=1275#comment-52302</guid>
		<description>@Kevin, you’re entitled to your view point and so am I. Sorry if it’s not sugar coated lumps of everything is wonderful but when you see (and record) the amount of things I have you start to question what people say (people question me all the time and rightly so). But being the biggest trumpet blower or the guy with the best parties doesn’t cut much ice with me. You’re entitled to your view and how you express it and I am of mine and if you don’t agree fair play.

I do wonder why so many ex-DGM members of staff rally around to try their best to take shots at me any time they can, if it was over DGM Pro then I am sorry but I lost a lot of money when that system went live but even I moved on and forgave what happened back then, maybe you and a few others should consider that also. As I am prepared to work with people in an honest and open fashion but if they don’t do the same back then they can’t expect me to be nice all the time.

As for my Dim and Dismissive view, it’s generally only when peoples words are not the sum of their actions. However I can’t change the fact that certain people will not like what I have to say, just like when Spyware was a major issue and how very wrong I was to be rallying affiliates behind stopping this practice that so many of my peers (Networks making money from it) supported and told me was actually a good thing, so I am no stranger to people having strong views against me due to my passionate love of this industry. They normally bring out the “you’re a shareholder in a Network” card but I am and have been an Affiliate much longer than most people have been involved.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Kevin, you’re entitled to your view point and so am I. Sorry if it’s not sugar coated lumps of everything is wonderful but when you see (and record) the amount of things I have you start to question what people say (people question me all the time and rightly so). But being the biggest trumpet blower or the guy with the best parties doesn’t cut much ice with me. You’re entitled to your view and how you express it and I am of mine and if you don’t agree fair play.</p>
<p>I do wonder why so many ex-DGM members of staff rally around to try their best to take shots at me any time they can, if it was over DGM Pro then I am sorry but I lost a lot of money when that system went live but even I moved on and forgave what happened back then, maybe you and a few others should consider that also. As I am prepared to work with people in an honest and open fashion but if they don’t do the same back then they can’t expect me to be nice all the time.</p>
<p>As for my Dim and Dismissive view, it’s generally only when peoples words are not the sum of their actions. However I can’t change the fact that certain people will not like what I have to say, just like when Spyware was a major issue and how very wrong I was to be rallying affiliates behind stopping this practice that so many of my peers (Networks making money from it) supported and told me was actually a good thing, so I am no stranger to people having strong views against me due to my passionate love of this industry. They normally bring out the “you’re a shareholder in a Network” card but I am and have been an Affiliate much longer than most people have been involved.</p>
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		<title>By: Jason</title>
		<link>http://www.onelittleduck.co.uk/affiliate-marketing/customer-journey-cookie-attribution-statistically-flawed-1275.htm/comment-page-1/#comment-52301</link>
		<dc:creator>Jason</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Oct 2009 18:31:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.onelittleduck.co.uk/?p=1275#comment-52301</guid>
		<description>@Helen, Kevin, Clarke etc... what data can be &quot;seen&quot; by a merchant/network. Are you able for example to tell if Johnny Consumer clicked around, set a few cookies, deleted them and then went for his cashback? 

How much data is available - can it be drilled down to such levels.. and here&#039;s another thought.. do consumers know that you/merchant/network know or potentially know this level of activity? Is that a hurdle to jump in the future or will shoppers become less keen to click on links/affiliate links for fear of tracking?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Helen, Kevin, Clarke etc&#8230; what data can be &#8220;seen&#8221; by a merchant/network. Are you able for example to tell if Johnny Consumer clicked around, set a few cookies, deleted them and then went for his cashback? </p>
<p>How much data is available &#8211; can it be drilled down to such levels.. and here&#8217;s another thought.. do consumers know that you/merchant/network know or potentially know this level of activity? Is that a hurdle to jump in the future or will shoppers become less keen to click on links/affiliate links for fear of tracking?</p>
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		<title>By: HelenMarie</title>
		<link>http://www.onelittleduck.co.uk/affiliate-marketing/customer-journey-cookie-attribution-statistically-flawed-1275.htm/comment-page-1/#comment-52300</link>
		<dc:creator>HelenMarie</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Oct 2009 18:22:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.onelittleduck.co.uk/?p=1275#comment-52300</guid>
		<description>Hi Jason - I think the confusion is that one merchant’s data is only relevant to them and not necessarily reflective of the industry as a whole.  The path to sale is defined by the customer’s decision making process and this as we know will vary vastly depending on what the purchase is.  I don’t think there is a blanket answer to the question of attribution; I really think it will vary depending on the client. 

With regard to paying out on first click, I was asked this question recently.  Within the media mix affiliates would lose out significantly to display but just within the affiliate channel I can see an argument for this.  However, my personal opinion is that more influence on the sale can be attributed nearer to the sale, so essentially last click.  Take eBay again, their QCP model attributes more value to the click closer to the sale and I think many clients would take this view.  Certainly open to debate though.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi Jason &#8211; I think the confusion is that one merchant’s data is only relevant to them and not necessarily reflective of the industry as a whole.  The path to sale is defined by the customer’s decision making process and this as we know will vary vastly depending on what the purchase is.  I don’t think there is a blanket answer to the question of attribution; I really think it will vary depending on the client. </p>
<p>With regard to paying out on first click, I was asked this question recently.  Within the media mix affiliates would lose out significantly to display but just within the affiliate channel I can see an argument for this.  However, my personal opinion is that more influence on the sale can be attributed nearer to the sale, so essentially last click.  Take eBay again, their QCP model attributes more value to the click closer to the sale and I think many clients would take this view.  Certainly open to debate though.</p>
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		<title>By: Clarke</title>
		<link>http://www.onelittleduck.co.uk/affiliate-marketing/customer-journey-cookie-attribution-statistically-flawed-1275.htm/comment-page-1/#comment-52299</link>
		<dc:creator>Clarke</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Oct 2009 18:22:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.onelittleduck.co.uk/?p=1275#comment-52299</guid>
		<description>@Jason (BigIdeas) yes it’s not a very good idea ;-) but seriously so many scamming bad apples around like adware, toolbar and iframe who would spoil that barrel the day it went live. Also the good guys would be all dashing to get the 1st click, when a new merchant went live, “click here for xxx”, oh I lied a little it’s not such a great deal, oh well, cookie has been set, so don’t care, it’s the merchants problem now. So not so good, any system that rewards laziness will end in tears.

You don’t give the “hi welcome to pc store” person the commission for selling the PC extended warranty if the sales guy sold it, do you? Equally you don’t give the commission to the person ringing it through the till, so it’s all about rewarding the right person and last click is far from perfect but everyone getting a slice of the pie is even worse in most cases.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Jason (BigIdeas) yes it’s not a very good idea <img src='http://www.onelittleduck.co.uk/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif' alt=';-)' class='wp-smiley' />  but seriously so many scamming bad apples around like adware, toolbar and iframe who would spoil that barrel the day it went live. Also the good guys would be all dashing to get the 1st click, when a new merchant went live, “click here for xxx”, oh I lied a little it’s not such a great deal, oh well, cookie has been set, so don’t care, it’s the merchants problem now. So not so good, any system that rewards laziness will end in tears.</p>
<p>You don’t give the “hi welcome to pc store” person the commission for selling the PC extended warranty if the sales guy sold it, do you? Equally you don’t give the commission to the person ringing it through the till, so it’s all about rewarding the right person and last click is far from perfect but everyone getting a slice of the pie is even worse in most cases.</p>
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		<title>By: Kevin Edwards</title>
		<link>http://www.onelittleduck.co.uk/affiliate-marketing/customer-journey-cookie-attribution-statistically-flawed-1275.htm/comment-page-1/#comment-52298</link>
		<dc:creator>Kevin Edwards</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Oct 2009 18:05:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.onelittleduck.co.uk/?p=1275#comment-52298</guid>
		<description>@Clarke, I have to say you have an incredibly dim and dismissive (as well as particularly assumptive) view of a number of your peers.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Clarke, I have to say you have an incredibly dim and dismissive (as well as particularly assumptive) view of a number of your peers.</p>
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		<title>By: Jason</title>
		<link>http://www.onelittleduck.co.uk/affiliate-marketing/customer-journey-cookie-attribution-statistically-flawed-1275.htm/comment-page-1/#comment-52297</link>
		<dc:creator>Jason</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Oct 2009 17:11:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.onelittleduck.co.uk/?p=1275#comment-52297</guid>
		<description>I know I am probably going to sound dumb, but what about going back to the first click wins?  This seems to me, from a basic standpoint, to reward the place which started the buying journey, and probably done enough to persuade the visitor to purchase said item and thus go on to seek out the bargain/voucher/cash back.

I&#039;m sure the theory is flawed, and hopefully someone will put me straight, but a few that I spoke to at Expo thought it is credible enough to think about.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I know I am probably going to sound dumb, but what about going back to the first click wins?  This seems to me, from a basic standpoint, to reward the place which started the buying journey, and probably done enough to persuade the visitor to purchase said item and thus go on to seek out the bargain/voucher/cash back.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m sure the theory is flawed, and hopefully someone will put me straight, but a few that I spoke to at Expo thought it is credible enough to think about.</p>
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